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 Alliance dilemma

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switza

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PostSubject: Alliance dilemma   Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:05 pm

So here's my question for down the road.

I haven't played a social/strategy game like this where I was in a comfortable position in years so I need my thinking straight.

At some point- if things go our way based on current alliances- we'll potentially get down to

Than
Nat
Us 3
Mets
Kevin
Sam
Dana

Say the death match at that point is a social one between Than vs Kevin. Do we stick with Than and hope Nat is with us for 5-4 majority?

Is that too far down the road to be thinking?
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:35 pm

A lot is going to change. People are going to piss each other off, feel insecure in their groups, and fragment in every which way... To me, the best way to hopefully dodge that is to lie low and try to be useful, so when that happens, we're not caught in the cross-hairs. If we have a stable alliance while everyone else is spazzing in every direction, we suddenly have an advantage (as it stands right now, with the numbers, we don't have the power to make any such move). At that point, giving the impression of turning on each other wouldn't be a bad idea, but it does get to the point you need to think 2 steps ahead, and have 3 possibly ways to play every conceivable scenario (this is when paranoia kills). We may end up with someone random (even Blake) being the person we need, depending on how everyone else plays their own game.

The problem is having everyone's ear held to the right track, which is why having such a large group is useful - it gives a little bit of a guide. It's not solid (nothing ever is in these game), but it's something.

In that scenario, it would depend on where Nat is. I've never played a game with him, but from what I understand, he's seen as a "hero" - which is easy for people to manipulate (and it seems he usually gets eliminated because of that). So he should be feeling it by that point... which means yeah, I'd say side with Than and hope we can get Nat. Otherwise, one of us will need to win the Death Match (that's almost inevitable at some point, so may as well expect it). But it depends on how it plays out, and who's alienated from that larger alliance. That said, Nat is likely to feel alienated, and Than doesn't immediately seem connected with any larger group atm (and shares a lot with Pete) - so those would *probably* be our best options. If Nat doesn't go with us, it might be less risky to still keep Than and just throw one of us into the Death Match and hope for the best (if we're eliminated, we're screwed - but if we win, we suddenly have an advantage that lasts longer than 1 round).
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:48 pm

Sounds about right. Like I said I haven't really played one of these games in 5 or 6 years maybe. So I need to align my focus on short term vs long term.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:03 pm

To be fair, I don't have that much experience myself - but that seems to be the pattern from my limited experience.

I'd like to rely on Mets (Adam and he were the 2 people I listed as most wanting to work with - sorry Pete, I'd never talked to you before this game, but I'm VERY happy to work with you, as it's turned out). But I'm getting the impression that's not going to happen/not sure where he stands on anything.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:46 pm

Ideally Kevin Sam or Dana would get taken out by a death match that doesn't look like was our fault. So the trust is still there with mets, but we become more important allies.

He was 3rd on my list to want to work with behind the two of you.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:23 am

We're safe again!
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:37 am

This is one Blake could actually win, too. Which, as nice as Dana is, might be useful to us in the longrun.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:27 pm

Agreed. Blake is ridiculously smart. I predict he wins.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:06 pm

The strategy I suggested to Dana (and Mets) actually probably isn't that great (but it might be, depending on Blake's password).  It would take 12 questions, possibly more if one of the numbers is odd and less than 5.5.  Which is still less than if Blake creates his password with a wide spread (1-9), and cycling through each number.  9 initial questions (in case of repeats), then the 1st number could potentially require 3 questions asked, the 2nd number 2 questions asked.  Of course, if a password doesn't have a widespread (2314, as an example), this could theoretically be over in 7 questions - with the right questions.

And a lot depends on the password chosen (wide spread, mix of evens and odds, not in numerical order... everything to counter a person getting any info with a "shortcut" question).  Realistically, it makes the most sense to go straight for the kill, while keeping one's own password safe from being exploited by any shortcut questions (so any attempt to find a pattern will be a wasted question).  I imagine Blake will choose a better/more protected password than Dana will.

I didn't want to go through all of this with them unless you two are cool with it.  It's a matter of who we want to win - Blake or Dana (as it stands, I have no doubt Blake will win).  But I did want to seem helpful.  That said, I don't think this challenge will last longer than 15 minutes (if both are active and focused), and there are a few cheats to get the questions down to around 7 for the win.  So I don't know what to suggest to them.  Thoughts?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Alliance dilemma   Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:21 am

I think we've suggested enough to seem helpful and keep their trust. But at this point, I say let them fight it out and let the best person win.
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