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 Match Numero Dos

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switza

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PostSubject: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:17 am

I asked Mas to open this back up. Let's hope we do better on the second match.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:36 am

Match is posted. Thoughts?

Seems like we need exactly 5 to succeed. Unless our numbers are far apart. If I'm 1 and you two are 6 and 7, we'll never be part of the same straight of 5. Do we try to orchestrate 2 straights or just agree to getting 2/3 the win?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:01 am

I'm thinking each chair is assigned a number already. Mas won't want the match to end on round 1 before any swapping so the numbers won't be consecutive or follow an odds and evens pattern as that would be too easy to figure out. I'm thinking the first 3 chairs (ABC) could have something like 1 5 9 DEF could be 2 6 10 GHI 3 7 11 and JKL 4 8 X or some sort of similar pattern. That would keep everything spaced out evenly to begin the game.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:04 am

It might be good to try to make one of us X the first round for that reason (the problem being if we're close, but say 2 off, that could potentially be bad.  And while I think he'd want the first round to be spaced far apart (probably already has numbers assigned to seats, rather than randomly assigning us numbers as individuals), he could very well flip it - so, for example, GHI could be 3 7 11 *or* 11 7 3.  He could also potentially group them by 4 (1-4-7-10/ABCD, 2-5-8-11/EFGH, 3-6-9-X/IJKL), meaning trying to pick B-E-H could backfire depending on how he orders the numbers in each set.

Ideal scenario, one of us is X, and the others are 1 and 2... we'd be 1.) close together, 2.) one of us would not risk getting X again (and Mas won't want this to end the first round, because he's sadistic), and 2.) and the other 2 would also be far off.

But even if we do get 5 in a row while one is X, one of us could always swap with the other, to put it out of order.  It might look fairly obvious to everyone else, but it might not - and there would be ways to play it down.  A lot of things I've thought were obvious seemed to not play out how they seemed (Jess not killing Henry being a big one).  But that's not accounting for if there's another 5 in a row, or one easy for others to get.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:07 am

Once the game starts, it sounds straightforward enough... figure out who's what number and try to line up the pieces. I think right now it's a matter of trying to figure out how Mas will *most likely* assign numbers, and hope we're right (or get lucky being wrong).
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:14 am

Do you think we should grow our numbers and open a bigger room? Maybe the group of 7 "winners" from last round? We'd also likely get info from mets and than.

I feel the more info the better but not sure how to work this.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:19 am

Should we go 1 of us in A-D 1 in E-H and 1 in I-L? Or just randomly pick a seat and hope for the best?
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:24 am

It's a tricky situation... More information would help a lot (especially knowing everyone's number), but it also means everyone would know our numbers, which could turn out to be a trap. And we can't really lie about our numbers, because someone might know the truth. We could swap numbers with each other (say my number is yours, and vice versa), but when we're ready to get 5 in a row, it's either gonna be admitting that we lied or trying to convince them to *not* get 5 in a row (just for the game to end and them to find out we lied).

If we can get one larger group, and then 2 other people for a separate group of 5 (if Than and Mets are willing, though I don't think Pete trusts Mets at all, and I'm on the fence), that would be ideal.

A larger group would also help to pressure anyone (Sam, perhaps) into not targeting us, because they'd have to work with everyone else targeting someone else.



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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:25 am

I think try to go with an order and, if we're wrong, hope it turns out well, anyway. Do you think Mas would be more likely to group them by 3s or 4s?
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:26 am

If we can get within 5 of each other, and find out who the other 2 are, then I'd say PM them right away and try to get them before anyone else does.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:51 am

Sam has pm'd me a couple times. I think she is being legit. So I might be able to get info from her-mets-duckbear without them being part of our main group.

Unless Than is with them, I feel we have no contact with Blake or Kathy. Jess and Wolf were part of the losers group and might be willing to share info.

Probably best to approach people individually instead of creating a big group. Pete working with Than and his allies, me with Sam and mets and maybe tomcat with Wolf/Jess.

Thoughts?
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:57 am

I've talked to Wolf a couple times (more to do with BB Idol, but we talked about The Genius a little), so I'll see what I can do there.

I'm stop/starting while watching s2e2 to see how numbers were assigned there... might take a while because I'm only watching about a minute at a time, but the number reveal shouldn't be far off. Gimme about 20 minutes and we'll see if that can be useful.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:16 pm

2 position with 5 between, the other with 2 between both of us. Seems to be the most solid I can get (as the show isn't full on revealing numbers, only positions as they're discovered).
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:18 pm

Ugh, except we can't do that because Pete, you already picked!!!  Which means Switza, you and I should space midway through (5 between us on either side), and hope Pete's position works.  Or just go with groups of 3 or 4.  I'm down with whatever, up to you two.

btw, basing that on spacing in the game... the 5 between, with one having 2 between each, got a 7-8-9 line-up.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:31 pm

I guess if I choose D, and Switza chooses J (or vice versa), it can still fit the set-up on the show (if that's what Mas is using), AND the 4 brackets of 3 idea. Best bet, probably.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:33 pm

I'm fine with J.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:39 pm

We're good. Want me to request a room for our Death Match group, so you're not the one people see as always requesting the rooms?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:43 pm

Maybe pm a couple of them first to see their thoughts on it.

Don't want to just open it and have one of them spill info.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:56 pm

...had a major brain-freeze there lol
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:38 pm

So I think mets is going to place me in a room with him duck and Sam. So I should get some good info from them. He told me he doesn't trust Pete because you have Than on your friends list.

This could work out for appearances that the three of us aren't as close.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:42 pm

This is why I made a friends request with Than...it worked Wink

so with the 3 of us, the info you get from that group, and the info I get from Than (and possibly the info he gets from Kathy again) , we should have 8 of the numbers...
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:48 pm

And tomcat can possibly get info from wolf.

That leaves Blake, Dana and Jess on the outside?
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:53 pm

sounds about right...the only problem is that , while we can swap seats etc, we won;t be able to swap numbers....which means it's highly unlikely that the 3 of us will be able to be part of the winning straight. It'll take a bit of thinking once we get our numbers, to figure out the best scenario ( and by that I mean making sure no-one suspects us). I predict that at some point one of us will have to make a sacrifice....
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:05 pm

We definitely can't get stuck with the x. Ideally we 3 can get close enough numbers for the straight and all be safe. If not, I say as long as 2 are safe and the other isn't the x we should be good.

Seems like mets and Sam might be bigger targets than us right now. That might keep us safe even if we lose. We can also try to land the x on someone like sam duckbear or wolf because they likely wouldn't challenge one of us. I'm thinking Kathy might be the most likely to target us.

Also if one of us gets the bonus garnets for being in the middle, those could be used to bribe people.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: Match Numero Dos   Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:13 pm

If we're right about how numbers are assigned, Dana will be in our sequence, so we need to get her.  

I'll PM Nat now.  I don't want to propose too much right away, so this gives enough time before the challenge starts to build a rapport, and figure out what we need from there.

EDIT (trying not to get my post count as high as yours... ha, sorry): PM'd Nat, came up with a BS scenario on my thoughts on what the number assignments might be, so... we'll see what dialogue opens up.

If one of us gets X some round, it would be easy to force losing the round (unless it's painfully close to 2 sequences). But it would probably out us as deliberately losing (of course, this is why creating a target - or subtly pressuring others into naming a target - might be a good idea - then we can use the excuse that said person wasn't X).
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