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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:39 am

I requested the room with nat than and kathy opened again but I think mas sleeps now until 6 or 7 eastern, so it likely won't open for awhile. Worst case is we don't bet this round due to lack of information.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:49 am

Throw-away bets are fine, but really it'll only take 7 rounds to use all the chips. We likely can't bet on who we can/need to the 11th and 12th rounds, though.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:09 pm

I set up private rooms with the following: Mets, Sam, Kevin, Nat. Adam, if anyone asks, I have a private room with you, too (not entirely a lie). Pete, if anyone asks, I DO NOT yet have one with you.

I told Nat my clue, hoping he'll return the favor. Didn't tell the others my clue - I'll leave that up to them to decide whether they want to use the room or not.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:20 am

Nat = sum of top 3 horses is 14. Thinking it has to be 8 2 4.

So the order could be:

824
842
482
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:29 am

I could be wrong here...but I was looking at the hints , specifically Tomcat's...
8 beats 2 , 2 beats 7

Do you really think one of the hints would include the horses that finish 1st and 2nd ?? I know I'm maybe clutching at straws here, but following on from that, I'm guessing the order will be :
8-4-2 or 4-8-2
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:33 am

Well we know 8 is certain to finish 1 or 2. Do we throw a lot of chips on it to get others to follow suit and then 1 person casually throws on 4 and 1 throws on 2?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:34 am

Also Sam and duck (likely working together with mets) bet on 4 and 8. Could be a clue.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:35 am

I've placed 3 chips on 4 this round....next round, I may place 3 chips on a losing horse right at the start of the round, then change it before the end, splitting between 8 & 2
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:40 am

It might be smart for 1 of us to shadow duck's picks or mets's picks. It would guarantee they don't win solo.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:03 am

Yeah, Nat told me his clue, too.  

8 is 1st or 2nd.
2 is 2nd or 3rd.
4 is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

8 is the most sure bet here.  At least until we know whether the other is 4 or 2.

Can you change bets after betting? Shadowing Mets and Duck might not be a bad idea, except if someone shadows them on 2 and 4 too much and don't have enough bets on 8 (the odds are lower, but it would still be a win).
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:15 pm

I'm thinking Sam and Mets have a good idea of the top 2. I'd guess they'll each pick 2 and 4 to bet a lot on, or will use one to deflect while the other bets on the winning number (based on what they know). Probably a good idea to either do the same (spread between) or just watch them and try to figure out the winner based on what they do. Either way, I'm holding out betting on 2 or 4 until I get a good idea, and will place the majority of chips on one of them or 8 (depending on which has fewer bets at that point).

In the event we can't make a distinction between 2 and 4, Pete's already bet a lot on 4, so he can keep doing that while I bet a lot on 2 (that way we have a good spread between us).
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:50 pm

I don't think they do...if you have a look at the main page, Sam edited her initial bet (1 chip on H4) , changed it to 2 chips on H4 after she saw my bet...
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:09 pm

What I just told Nat:

"I'm thinking 4 might be 1st or 2nd if only because of some exclusion principle - it seems like its placement is a complete mystery (except maybe to 1 person), making it somehow key here. I guess if you see a few people suddenly betting a lot on 2, it's probably 2... otherwise, I'm thinking 4."

This is more a play to get people to try to deflect... hopefully will get a few people focused on 2 and 4 (both to bet and mislead), which hopefully makes better odds for 8 (the one everybody seems sure of). Also, watch for any bets on 2 and 4/who bets/how much/how known alliances are spread.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:53 am

Pete, is there a reason you decided to bet so much on 4? Just for the hell of it?

Because I noticed something interesting: Sam et al are throwing a lot of chips at 8 and 4, while Kevin is betting on 2 and hasn't touched 4. It could be a play to help the odds for 2 and diverting attention to 4 (to get others to bet on 4, giving Kevin a better payout/win).

Because the odds for 8 and 4 suck right now, but 2 is looking pretty good (and I'm not sure why Kevin would be betting on 2 with no one else in his alliance touching it for the time being).
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:36 am

I don't think them "diverting" attention to 4 is intentional, since I started betting heavy on it right from the start before the lot of them even touched it...in fact, Sam changed her bet on 4 after she saw mine. I was thinking of placing all my bets on H4 (except for 1 on H8) until Kathy decides to show,cause she hasn't placed a single bet yet, which means she would be in the death match. Also, right now, the odds on 8 are lower than 4 (more bets placed) , so I would win if 4 finishes 1st or second.
I will try and work out the odds of the horses when the next round starts, and see where we stand if the race were to finish then.
Like I said in one of my previous posts , I really don't think the game would have a hint where it tells you about the horse in first (H8) beating the horse in 2nd (H2).....especially when it is supposed to give everyone an equal chance. Did you watch the video that Mas posted of the actual game when this challenge was on ? The clues we all have are very similar to the ones issued in the real game... the only ones we haven't come across yet are :
the horse in third place is....
the horse leading at round 9 will be the winner....

So the plan is to keep betting on 4 until kathy shows up...if she does, then I'll switch to betting on number 8 (cause we know it's definitely in the top 2)
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:27 am

Kathy seemed very confident betting on H2. I'm curious to see what she/a couple others do this round. She's been missing... I wonder if she could also have a missing piece to this puzzle.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:42 am

I hope I'm right here, but I think it's just a case of " I'm gonna bet all my chips now cause I can't be bothered coming back on a daily basis". The fact that she tried to bet 20 indicates that she didn't even bother to read the rules. She hasn't really participated, let's be honest.
However, this puts me in a very delicate situation (if H4 isn't 1st or 2nd). I'll wait until the last minute this round to see if Kathy bets again. If she stays away, then I was right....if she comes back and bets on H2 again, I'm screwed...will have to bet all my remaining chips on H8, hoping Sam bets on H4 again.
Have you noticed what the others are doing ?
Sam is betting on 4 / 8
Kevin is betting on 2 / 8
Nat is betting on 2 / 4
Mets is betting on 4 / 8
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:38 am

It doesn't necessarily put you in a bad position, as long as you at least match Nat or Sam. If Kathy puts all of her chips on 2, she'll either win or lose, with how the odds are right now (win if 2 is a top finisher, lose if it's not) - in which case having just one chip on a winning horse would beat her. She also doesn't have time to bet all of her chips (since the 2nd place finisher will be in the no-bet zone by round 11 at least).

4 is probably one of the top finishers if only by probability (it could any of the top 3 positions, 2 could only be 2 of them). Wasn't Kathy in the criminals? Any chance she mentioned something in the room?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:20 am

Kathy hasn't said anything in that room; but Nat posted his clue, so we dwindled it down to 248 or 257 in there. Either she has a "H? is third place" clue so she knows the top 2 or she's just following other people's lead on betting.

Mets reopened the private room with just us two. He asked my thoughts. I said it looks like 2 and 8 are the popular choices. He came back with 4 looks popular too. Not sure if that was honest or trying to steer me away from 2/8.

He also brought up Pete/Than as a pair and his potential targets.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:50 am

I think that's it... it would make sense to set one person up to win, while the others divert attention, with just enough thrown into a sure winner (-8-) to not lose.  Whether or not that's what they're doing/if anyone is that organized this match... no clue.  Honestly, most of these challenges kind of end up a mess because no one's that organized.  We could also each buy hints  - but there are no guarantees any will tell us something we don't already know (I think, in the show, the hint revealed was which horse finished 6th place... which would obviously be useless information to us).

Re: targeting Pete and Than.  That might not actually be a bad thing, if - hopefully - Kathy loses and is eliminated this round.  It would mean either Than or Pete may go the Death Match next round (ideally steer that to Than, just in case) but if someone with good odds of winning against is up to be challenged (I don't get the impression Kevin is particularly strong in challenges), it could shift the dynamic.  It would basically create your hypothetical, "if we get to this point...?" scenario a few rounds back.  Regardless, we'd either have to all turn against Mets and Sam, or Pete would have to turn against Than.  I think Nat would still be a variable either way (I assume he talks/ed to Sam, Jess, and me a fair amount... maybe using each to get information to offer to the other, without ever outright betraying anyone's trust).  

Mets didn't tell me he's targeting Pete, but he did seem wary after the last match.  I suggested leaving Pete out this match (hence why I set up private rooms with everyone but him), then re-opening the room with all of us after this main match, to suss out the situation but with a Death Match and another Main Match to figure something out if the Pete situations goes awry (ie: maybe the idea was just to target Jess - though left out the obvious considerations about who he may have been working on that with... but for all Mets knows, it could've been anyone, criminal or citizen).  He also said he got the impression he thought Pete and Than were targeting you.  Thus, Pete becomes the secret weapon here (sorry, Pete).
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:36 pm

To be fair, the idea of going for broke in this challenge is appealing....think about it, If I win, cool, more garnets. If I lose, I challenge Kevin in the death match. We're gonna have to start diminishing their group sooner rather than later. So I keep betting on H4 all the way. Your thoughts ?

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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:09 pm

The one spanner in the works is if 2 *is* in 1st or 2nd, and Kevin ends up having the most bets place on it... between the most bets on H2 (with the best odds) and H8 (the surest bet), he'd win the challenge if he keeps consistently do that spread.

I was planning on throwing a few chips to 2 or 4 the last couple rounds, depending on which looked the best by that time (ideally, I'd be sure of which sooner).  As of now, 8 actually has better odds than 4 (or, would if I didn't bet on it - the last round I bet, H4 would've had one more bet than H8, my bets factored in).  Ultimately, the big game changer her will be whether it's H2 or H4.  Adam has his bets spread between the 3, so should come in ahead of Kevin if H2 is the winner, and equal-ish if H4 is the winner.  The problem is if H2 is the winner, Kevin has the most bets on it while it has the best odds.  In that regard, H2 might be a fair gamble *if* we all have enough bets to cover ourselves from losing.

If you wanted to go all or nothing, you can... it is a risk, though (it would probably either be you or Kathy, then).  But we also need to find some way to worsen the odds for H2 *just in case*.  If it looks like I stand no chance of winning (considering H8 vs H4), I'll throw my last couple rounds of chips to H2.  But ideally we need to come up with a scam to get others to bet on it, too (just to screw with the odds - or have someone with more bets on H2, and slightly fewer on H8, than Kevin... if H2 wins, and Kathy continues as is, then she's going to the Death Match, so that scenario is safe).  If H2 wins, then Kathy or Kevin may win, and the loser will be someone with more chips on H4 than H8 (and no chips on H2).

If you want to go all or nothing, do it.  My one concern is if it's a social challenge.  You have Adam, me, Than vs Sam, Mets, Kathy.  It will rest on Nat (maybe Kathy - know nothing about her this game).  If it looks like that's gonna happen, I'll do my best to work on him, and Adam/Than probably should, too. But there would be no certainty.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:27 pm

The other option would be for you to keep going H4, me to keep going H8, so if it *is* H4, one of us wins (whichever has the better odds at the end - since one of us would be the person with all of our chips on the winner with the best odds).  And Adam could keep splitting his vote enough to worsen the odds of H2, but with enough covered (on H4 and H8 - basically stay 1 chip on 8, the sure bet, above the 2nd lowest/1 chip lower on H2) that he won't lose if H2 doesn't win.

That might also encourage more people to bet on H2, with the odds for H4 and H8 sucking big time.
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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:25 pm

H2 can't be the winner. it can only come in 2nd or 3rd. I'll try and convince Than to bet on H2 , this will lower the odds, and also make sure that Kevin doesn't win.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:46 pm

1st and 2nd both "win", so it's not just a matter of picking a winner, but picking the winner with the best odds.  Which could backfire if H2 isn't 1st or 2nd place, and Than bets too much on it.  Right now, it looks like Nat actually has the highest amount bet on H2, so as long as Than keeps his bets just under that, if H2 comes in 3rd, Than will be safe.  Basically, if we're reasonably certain H2 won't win, get people to bet on it - but no one we want to stay safe bet the *most* on it.  But on the chance it does win, we don't want a possible target (Kevin, I guess) betting the most while it has better odds than H4 and H8.  Kind of confusing, really. Very Happy

If both you and I bet everything on H4 and H8, respectively, and H4 comes in 1st or 2nd, then one of us will win the challenge and both of us will be safe (if H4 places 3rd, you're going to the Death Match - which is why we have to make sure Kevin/someone relatively easy to beat doesn't win the token of life).
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