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 PAT Match 5

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switza

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PostSubject: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:48 am

Hey guys. Let's get this one figured out.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:15 am

Hey guys Wink , love the idea of this game !! As for what strategy to use, I think it's a case of not betting on 1st and 2nd (if we ever find out for sure) until near the end of the race, but also before each horse reaches the no bet zone !!
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:22 am

My hint guarantees h5 cannot finish 1st or 2nd. So we can avoid betting on it.

Why would you not bet everything on the winners when you know who it is? I don't follow that thinking??
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:29 am

if you do that , then everyone will jump on board....then it becomes tricky, cause if , say , H1 finishes 1st, and H2 finishes 2nd...if we all jump onto H1, then someone else decides on H2, they will win because the odds at the end will be defined by the total number of bets placed on that horse....

Here is the info I have gathered so far :
H1 beats H7
H1 beats H3
H8 beats H1
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:47 am

Here is part of my confusion. My clue says: "H7 will finish before H5 but after H2". But mas has stated only 2 horses cross the finish line. If H2 finishes before H7 and H7 finishes before H5, does that mean H2 and H7 are the only 2 that finish?
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:00 am

Here's mine: H2 will finish before H7 but after H8

So it looks like, somewhat related to your question, Adam, horse 8 beats them both.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:06 am

I see what you mean....I think it means that once the first 2 horses finish, that's the race over....in other words, it wont carry on until every horse has crossed the finish line. So, let's say H1 wins (crosses the finish line first) , the race keeps going until the next horse crosses the finish line (for argument's sake, let's say it's H2). At that point, the race is over, the rest of the horses don't get to finish the race, and the position they are at when H2 crosses the line will be their final position. I think when it says "finish" in the clue, it just means its final finishing position.

I think you may have misunderstood your clue....

basically, it says that H2 beats H7 , but H7 beats H5 (in the final order)

putting all of that together , we can deduce that :

8--1--7--5

8--2--7--5

1--3
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:09 am

So far, not necessarily in order (we don't know the places for 1, 3, 4, 6): 5-7-2-8

But we do know 8 is in the lead so far (from what we know).

EDIT: I have the finisher on the right, probably should've reversed that. 8-2-7-5


Last edited by Tomcat Murr on Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:10 am

So we know:
1 beats 7
1 beats 3
8 beats 1
2 beats 7
2 beats 5
7 beats 5
8 beats 2
8 beats 7
2 beats 7

We can eliminate 357 as 1st or 2nd.
12 can't be first but could be second.
8 could be first or second.

If we determine someone beats 8, we can eliminate 12.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:10 am

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! scrap all of that lololol

Mas just posted this in y confessional !

Bandage Man
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New postSubject: Re: Round 5... Today at 3:34 pm Select/Unselect multi-quote Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post Delete this post View IP address of poster
sorry pete but i need to amend your hint slightly.

Hint #9: H1 will finish before H5 but after H8
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:13 am

So now we know nothing about 346. We still know 57 are losers.

8 still leads.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:14 am

so...
8 1 5
2 7 5
8 2 7
1 3

so...
8 beats 1, 2, 3 ,5 , 7
1 beats 3 , 5
2 beats 7, 5
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:15 am

Has anyone gotten outside clues from anyone else yet?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:16 am

We still know 1 beats 3?
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:17 am

1 beats 3 , that was Than's hint
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:17 am

Tomcat Murr wrote:
Has anyone gotten outside clues from anyone else yet?  
not me. After the last game, not sure mets will trust Pete or I to share info.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:19 am

And so far only 8 beats 1, but we still have some numbers unaccounted for. Has anyone found Nat's clue yet? I could try for that if not.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:21 am

I could get mas to re-open the criminals room and see if nat or Kathy will reveal anything.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:22 am

What about buying a clue? I'd be willing to do that as well if we don't think we can rely on getting other player hints.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:24 am

also, so far, only 8 beats 2 !! we need to have some info between 1 and 2 , also anything about 4 and 6
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:25 am

That could help. I'm thinking of having Mas set up an individual "PM room" with everyone I've talked to even a tiny bit, with the excuse being "if we ever need it".

I could also, theoretically, ostracize you and Pete and try to open up a Mets/Sam/Duck/me room excluding you 2. Of course, I only have one shot at that, because I'll probably alienate them after this match. But it might help for this match.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:25 am

Right now we've eliminated 357 from contention. 8 finishes no worse than 3rd. As of now, a safe bet would be 1 chip on 4 1 on 6 and 1 on 8. Guaranteed at least 1 of those is top 2.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:30 am

If we can't figure out more in a couple rounds, buying a clue is an option. But we can bet 3 chips per round, so 7 rounds to bet it all with 12 rounds in the game. Probably a good idea to guard our clues but try to get others before buying them.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:31 am

It might be a good idea not to bet this round...and see what everyone else is up to. Or perhaps, just one of us has a bet (just 1 chip) , so as not to arouse any suspicion. Your thoughts ?

if we all bet like you suggest , they will know something is up....it may also be a good idea to place a few "throwaway" bets , just to confuse people ?
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 5   Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:37 am

I'm fine with erratically wasting a couple chips this round. As long as we don't all do the same exact bets the first couple rounds, it should eliminate suspicion.
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