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 PAT Match 4

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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: PAT Match 4   Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:49 pm

Because we're "Pat" now. Neutral

I'm a citizen. I assume we're agreed that who you 2 are will determine who we want to win (ie: if both of you are criminals, then criminals losing - in a pool of 4 - would be very bad). But ideally, for the purpose of information, at least one of you would be a criminal. Ideally one of you would be the criminal leader and the other the citizen leader, but I don't think Mas likes us that much. Sad
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:36 am

I'm a criminal with Nat Than and Kathy.

Would it be in our best interest as a group to let criminals win and then the criminals target Jess for the death match? I think you two would be low on her radar to challenge.

If my group loses, you can vote for Kathy. But she's going to take one of me Nat or Than to the death match and potentially beat us.

If your group loses, we can target Jess and she'll likely pick mets duck or sam- not as big a loss for us.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:15 am

So Me, Tomcat , Jess , Kevin , Mets and Sam are the Citizens. If the criminals win, are you sure you can persuade the others to vote for Jess ? If you can, I have no problem with sabotaging the vote if I get picked on the jury...and if Tomcat does the same, then we're home and dry....if you can guarantee that Jess will be picked. I'm in a room with Than, but he hasn't spoken yet. Once he does, I'll suggest this plan to him, if you guys are ok with that ?
Or it might be even better if you got in touch with him Adam.....And you could suggest to him that , you have an idea that Soul (me) is working with him (based on the last round of matches), is there any way he could sway me to betray the other citizens if you could guarantee his safety ?

I've just realised , if Tom is ok with the plan you suggested Adam , then all we need to do is wait until there is at least 1 criminal on the jury , then the 4 criminals + me + tom , vote "agree" and we have majority , until then, we all disagree lol, and it's in the bag ! there's only 1 round where we need a minimum of 2 "not guilty"s , all the others , as long as there is just one, the criminals win. At the end, it's just a case of hoping that they don't manage to guess who the leader is. As long as he/she hasn't revealed it to anyone, then they have 1 chance in 4. I like those odds.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:09 pm

Getting Jess voted shouldn't be an issue. She has been least active. It'll likely be a situation where if we don't agree, the citizens win and two criminals face off in the death match, so everyone will just make a unanimous decision.

The easiest way would be if the lead citizen reveals, then we let citizens win 3 and then our lead criminal correctly guesses the identity.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:18 pm

The odds are there will be a criminal on the jury most rounds. And we can't always vote with the criminals, or we'll be outed to anyone who figures it out (not a good position to be in if we're on the losing side - which I'm fine with, btw). The most important thing here is to keep the citizen leader from finding out the criminal leader (the challenge is stacked in favor of the criminals, but the guessing the leader game is in favor of the citizens).

When it comes to getting criminals on the jury... just play dumb. I'd say try to misdirect people one-on-one (act naive and dumb), but PMs are disabled. Also, just about to look at the Main Match thread now... maybe more thoughts after.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:27 pm

I was hoping that I would be contacted by the lead citizen , one way or another, but no joy so far....obviously it's not me or Tomcat, or we would have said. I'm betting it's Jess , and as luck would have it she's never on.
as far as the voting goes , it may be a simple case of waiting to see if there is a majority before voting....if the majority is what we would hope for, then there's no need for us to vote....we can just play dumb and claim we missed the deadline ( the rule says anyone who doesn't vote will be taken as agreeing with the majority). I have already voted this round...but next time I'll wait and see.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:33 pm

Yeah, the lead citizen would probably want to try to figure out who other citizens are. That would make it easy.

As long as the jury has 1 criminal, they'll win. This first round is perfect, because there's deniability (how would we be able to guess who's who the first round???). I'll vote agree later, but I want to give the impression I'm trying to figure it out (ie: kill some time). The one real issue is when multiple criminals are on the jury - that jury is unlikely to repeat, and give everyone a pretty good idea, if there are multiple Not Guilty votes. It would be ideal for criminals to coordinate and for all but 1 to vote against their roles, to make who's who more confusing.

I'm fine with Jess going to the Death Match, if you can steer that. My only big concern is Mets going to the Death Match (DO NOT let him volunteer again)... I have no clue what he'd do (he might be garnet hungry), and he's the only citizen I'd be notably worried about beating me in the Death Match (for a one-on-one challenge). Jess would be safe all around (reasonably so, at least).
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:34 pm

I just proposed to the criminals that we try to find out the identity of the citizen leader by asking our alliances. So you might get asked by Than or Nat.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:35 pm

There are no more PMs, and I don't have a board with Nat. I'll set one up later, just as a PM surrogate if need be. But I don't want to do it right now/make it right after you suggested that.
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:39 pm

Thought: you guys open a room with sam mets and duck again. Pete could say Than told you the list of criminals so you didn't want to include me in that room. They could slip and say they're the leader. One of them is possibly the leader so they could verify that Than and I are both criminals.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:43 pm

The leader of the citizens can easily work out who the rest of the citizens are ! Since they know the identity of the criminals (but not the leader), it's not rocket science after that lol.
I do have a question though....
if someone sets up a room for , say, 5 people, and you are one of those people, is there any way for you to work out who set up the room ? maybe that's what the leader of the citizens is scared of ? being easily identified
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:49 pm

I wouldn't think so without being told.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:52 pm

I'm sure you can request Mas make that info private.

Sam would probably have some idea of what Nat has and hasn't told me. So you'll need to make it, and someone's gonna need to figure it out with Than - how Pete got Adam's info, especially if Than didn't say. Shouldn't be too hard.

The one problem with that is, all of us knowing who the criminals are, Adam's jury is never going to be accepted, and since I'll then know (officially), I won't be able to pick any criminals - so it'll but up to others to reject my jury (with a majority, which you won't have). And so on.

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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:55 pm

Pete, didn't you say you had a room with Than and Nat and Blake? You could ask in there and see what they reply.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:08 pm

The room with Than Nat and blake disappeared after the last death match....now it's just the one with Than and I . The problem with asking for a room with the other citizens is that the leader will know that one of us knows who the criminals are ( when in fact the leader should be the only one who knows) , unless we're in an alliance which happens to have a criminal in it....very tricky...
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:10 pm

One thought: probably a good idea to figure out the criminal leader and keep them out of the line of fire.  Read: don't let them be the only criminal on a jury (and they should probably always vote Guilty).  Because if the citizen leader sees a jury of no known criminals, and there's a Not Guilty vote, by process of elimination they'll know one of those people is the leader.  Since the odds of each verdict are in favor of the criminals, it would make sense to try to recycle those same people (in increments) and figure out who the leader is.  

Also, the board idea probably won't work... if the citizen leader knows all criminals besides the leader, then giving them the full list of criminals is giving them the answer. To make a play to figure out the citizen leader would mean the criminals would need to deliberately lose, then flip it by giving the name of the citizen leader (which is probably the safest play, but only if you can get every criminal to along with it).
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:15 pm

But if you're asking for rooms with people you've already worked with it won't be so obvious. Just open and ask if they're citizens seems like the logical step (if they're criminals they already know you're a citizen so that's not new info). Don't approach it with info and it shouldn't seem suspicious.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:22 pm

...you have already confirmed that Than and Nat are criminals, and Than has also confirmed this in our room...what possible info could be gained from me opening a room with the both of them ? since Nat and Than are in a "criminals only room " anyway ?
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:44 pm

I've just re-read the rules etc...I have made a huge mistake !! The citizen leader will know the identities of 3 criminals, but NOT the leading criminal. This is why the leading citizen cannot contact anyone safely
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:15 pm

I see what you're saying about the room. Was just thinking to solidify your group and possibly Nat would get info from Sam but not share with me/Kathy.

Someone might've already mentioned this, but you guys can also help distract the citizen leader by voting guilty if you get in the jury.
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:21 pm

yeah, I've said this already, that I'm more than willing to sabotage the whole vote if it helps...
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:46 pm

It would depend on who's in the jury at any given point.  Sabotaging the challenge to be on the losing side is dangerous for both of us (a big red flag to people that we sabotaged it, while being eligible for the Death Match - that's justification right there).  So it depends on who's on the jury at any given point/how much any citizens would be able to zero in on us being the ones to sabotage.  

I'm fine with losing, and I'm fine with sabotaging... but it would be a really bad idea for either of us to do both at the same time, at least in a way someone may pick up on.  

Realistically, the criminals will win the trial stage here... so it's just a matter of the citizen leader not discovering who the criminal leader is.  Or, conversely, have the criminals throw the trial stage and figure out who the citizen leader is (that's where the board would probably help, but it's a gamble).
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soullimbo

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:01 pm

the criminals can't throw the trial stage this time...cause there are 2 criminals on the jury, the leading citizen would therefore know at least one of them if not both, so no point in throwing it. The only way to throw it is if the leading criminal knows that he's the only one on the jury....but even then , if the leading citizen hasn't made contact with other citizens, then there's no way they would be able to figure it out anyway. (and since we are both citizens, if we haven't been contacted , that would make us possible leading criminals as far as the leading citizen is concerned)
As for us sabotaging the vote, unless there's a room with all citizens in it , no one would be bale to figure it out , since the votes are done privately through confessionals
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switza

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:22 pm

My prediction is the criminals win but the lead citizen guesses correctly. Either way, both leads will start with 1 in 6 odds of guessing correctly and can only improve.
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Tomcat Murr

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PostSubject: Re: PAT Match 4   Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:24 pm

Depending on who's selected for the jury each round, it shouldn't be difficult to figure out who's a criminal and who's not - and the lead citizen would be able to determine who the lead criminal is, depending on who's repeated each round.  Unless we block every attempt at forming a jury, which isn't likely (and problematic in itself).  The first round is just 1 round... the 2nd round may have some spill-over, or it may be a whole new cast of characters.  By the 3rd round, patterns should be evident.  There is a way to deflect that pattern, and that's either of us being on a jury that gets a successful Guilty verdict, and on a jury that gets Not Guilty (the other way being if there's a known criminal, but we'd still have to vote differently in different trials, and there are no guarantees we'll even be in 2 juries, let alone who else will be there - ie: we could sabotage to vote Not Guilty the first time, but the 2nd time, when we may need to vote Not Guilty, we may have to vote Guilty... or make a redundant Not Guilty decision, but even then, past trials/who was in them becomes a factor).

If the criminals throw the challenge, the lead citizen will most likely see what they're doing.  But it wouldn't matter, as long as what they're doing isn't traced back to us.  It deflects, too - the citizen leader wouldn't be able to see any patterns if everyone is voting Guilty. But then it's a matter of having a good plan to figure out who the citizen leader is (which is possible).

It becomes a pattern, though... if a jury has 3 people who were in a previous jury, and let's say this ends up going all 5 rounds, it shouldn't be difficult to get some idea of who voted what (also, if the citizen leader is talking to people they especially trust outside of this board, on IMDb or Skype or whatever, or in a private room - and we just haven't been contacted because they don't know if they can trust us - then eyes will already be on us... and let's face it, Sam/Mets/Duck are more likely to trust each other than they are to trust us, so that outside communication is a huge possibility).  We can take it round by round, of course - but there may be a trial it's just too risky (if someone can, by picking up on patterns, determine one of us probably sabotaged the challenge, we'd be great candidates to challenge for the Death Match).  Losing is one thing... I'm comfortable with the risk that comes with that (it's kind of exciting, actually).  But game-suicide is another thing entirely.  Sabotaging some rounds will be safe, but other rounds it won't - depending on who's in the jury.
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