Round 5...

Hint #4: H2 will finish before H7 but after H8

Can I get private boards (just them and me, one on one) for:

Nat and Tom PM
Mets and Tom PM
Sam and Tom PM
Kevin and Tom PM

lol, sorry. Thank you.

Assuming Nat was truthful about his clue:

8 is either 1st or 2nd place.
2 is either 2nd or 3rd place.
4 could be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

8 is a sure bet. 4 and 2 would be guessing at this point - but that's the top 3 positions. I will share this information with Adam and Pete, I swear - but I also want to win, and given history in past challenges, I don't want someone to come up with a needlessly complicated play that I'll ultimately agree to. So I'll give them 1 more round to bet before I tell them, and hopefully figure out if it's 4 or 2 in the meantime.

12 rounds, it'll take 7 rounds to bet all of the chips. Presumably, 2nd place will be in the no betting zone the 12th round (not before, because then what's the point of keeping it going?). Which means 1st place will probably reach the finish round 11, be in the no-bet zone round 10. If I start betting the 3rd round, then I have 3-4-5-6-7-8-9 (7 rounds) to bet all of my chips. No sense betting before that. Hopefully other people do throw-away bets before that, so even if they do bet on the right numbers, it'll already be spread. In the meantime, I hope I figure out this 2 and 4 thing.

Are we allowed to change our bets? Like, could I bet 3 chips on x one round, then move those same 3 chips to y the next round? The rules don't explicitly say all bets are final...

And if we can change our bets, does that change count as our 3 chips for the round... or can we, for example, spend 3 rounds betting 9 chips on x, then move them all to y the following round (and still have 3 more to bet)?

you can change your bets within the round but it's final once the round is over. i did mention it at one pt.

Ha! Sorry, apparently I skimmed a little too much. And thank you.

As of the end of Round 4, the odds are better on H4 than H8... but had I bet on H4, the odds would be worse on it than they were for H8 (by 1, but...). I might not bet this round (I only have 4 more rounds of betting). Hopefully most everyone uses all of their chips and I'll still have 1 more round to decide.

I'm still not sure about 4/2, so 8 is the most sure bet. But... yeah. Everyone knows it's between those horses, so they're all gonna have crap odds. But that's kind of the point right now. The most sure bet, ideally with the least crappy odds, to place the most chips on (maybe all). Clearly keeping people away from winning horses is out the window, so now it's just watching patterns and hoping everyone wastes their chips before they can adapt.

Well, I hope H4 is the other finisher, because it's my only hope of winning. I just need enough chips on H8 that no one can catch up, then screw up the odds for H4 by betting everything else on it.

We'll see. Either way, doesn't appear I'll lose, so that's something.

So, I can't exactly blame Pete for using H8 as a back-up, but it did kind of go against our agreement of each taking one horse and whomever ended with the best odds won.  My goal was to worsen the odds for H4 without doing it myself.  When Pete bet on H8, that was out the window.  Still, fair play - it's not like I wasn't trying for the same, I was just trying to be more sneaky about it (ie: not bet on it myself).

What irks me is how oblivious he is to that.  He made a move to worsen my odds when he could've shielded himself from losing by betting on H2 (then got Than to bet more on H8 to be sneaky).  But he bet on H8 instead, so I bet on H4 but without enough time to really do anything useful.  

I remember in Lsquared we lost a few challenges because no one could get themselves organized.  I knew we'd lose (or strongly suspected it, or hoped the other tribe would make similar mistakes and more of them), and I knew how to win.  But I didn't say it because I didn't want to be controlling, and took a few hits for the sake of hoping for the best.  To be fair, that strategy worked out for me in the longterm.  And here, I couldn't very well call Pete out on that (and the goal was to individually win).  

I keep saying I need to stop cooperating, but I keep cooperating.  Pete keeps obliviously going against everything (or it's not oblivious at all and he's brilliant - could be either).  I hope it wasn't oblivious and was actually intentional, because if so... great play on his part!  Much respect.

Also, if Kathy doesn't show up in a timely fashion to challenge someone, what happens? Is she just automatically eliminated?

Putting my thoughts here because publicly stating stuff against someone who could possibly challenge you seems a bad idea...

I think giving Kathy until 3 EST is more than fair. It's well over 24 hours for something that would've taken her all of 5 minutes to read/challenge/pick a time. Hell, that could be done on one's phone while sitting on the toilet (and just a week ago she said she posted doing just that). And if you extend it and she picks a time, how long until that time takes place? 3 days? A week? Would she show up for the time she selected? You have 8 other people in this game who sign on daily (if only for a few minutes to check in) to play... not really reasonable to give someone who hasn't signed on for 5 days (and will probably continue to do the same) the chance to advance in this game at the expense of one of those who does make the time/effort.

Nothing against Kathy (she seems cool), but... I'm sure everyone else has lives, work, family, holiday shopping, too - and make the time for the game, all the same.

Mas, I haven't gotten my role yet.